Kỷ luật đầu tư: 10 mẫu hình dự báo xu hướng giá chứng khoán và 10 nguyên tắc vàng khi giao dịch chứng khoán theo đà tăng trưởng
I/. MƯỜI NGUYÊN TẮC VÀNG KHI ĐẦU TƯ THEO ĐÀ TĂNG TRƯỞNG
Nguyên tắc số 1: Chỉ mua khi cổ phiếu có một nền giá hoặc mẫu hình tốt. Bạn không cần biết quá nhiều mẫu hình mà chỉ cần nghiên cứu một số mẫu hình thường gặp nhất và luyện tập nhận diện các mẫu hình này cho thành thạo. Có 10 mẫu hình thường gặp được môt tả sơ bộ ở Phần II bên dưới, để hiểu sâu về các mẫu hình có thể tìm đọc cuốn sách “Phân tích mẫu hình biểu đồ” do Tuyên biên dịch.
Nguyên tắc số 2: Chỉ mua khi cổ phiếu di chuyển vượt lên phía trên đường xu hướng của nền giá, gọi là điểm mua. Khối lượng tại điểm mua phải tăng trên 30-50% so với KL bình quân 50 ngày, ít nhất cũng phải cao hơn tất cả các phiên giảm giá trong 9-10 ngày gần đây. Vùng mua là phạm vi 5% tính từ điểm phá vỡ của các mẫu hình nền giá (tùy từng mẫu hình sẽ có điểm phá vỡ ở những vị trí khác nhau), không mua cao hơn 5% so với điểm phá vỡ của mẫu hình để tránh dính dừng lỗ nếu có nhịp kéo ngược tự nhiên.
Nguyên tắc số 3: Nhanh chóng bán nếu cổ phiếu đảo chiều quay trở lại phía dưới đường xu hướng của mẫu hình với KL và hành động giá tiêu cực. Hãy bán hết khi cổ phiếu giảm 7-8% từ điểm mua, không có ngoại lệ, và không mua thêm để không mua bình quân giá xuống khi cổ phiếu suy yếu.
Nguyên tắc số 4: Bán 20 đến 30% vị thế khi cổ phiếu tăng 15 đến 20% từ điềm phá vỡ. Nhiều cổ phiếu tăng 15% trở lên ngay sau khi phá vỡ mẫu hình trong vòng vài ngày thường dễ bị sụp đổ trở lại, nhưng cũng có nhiều cổ phiếu sẽ tiếp tục tăng mạnh, bán bớt giúp bạn bỏ túi 1 phần lãi và dễ dàng giữ phần còn lại. Bạn cũng phải xem xét hành động của cổ phiếu một cách cẩn thận trong vòng 1-3 tuần sau khi mua để quyết định chính xác nên giữ (khi đúng) hay nên bán (khi nhận ra sai lầm).” Để đề phòng sự thất bại khi cổ phiếu tăng quá nóng sau điểm mua, bạn nên bán 20 đến 30% vị thế. Chi tiết về quy tắc này cũng được đề cập trong cuốn sách “Phân tích mẫu hình biểu đồ“. (Quy tắc này có 1 chút mâu thuẫn với quy tắc 8 tuần mà Tuyên thường dùng, nhưng Tuyên thấy việc bán bớt 1 phần giúp bạn dễ dàng thực hiện quy tắc 8 tuần hơn, đồng ý với quy tắc này).
Nguyên tắc số 5: Nắm giữ các cổ phiếu mạnh nhất lâu nhất, càng lâu càng tốt. Bán các cổ phiếu vận động chậm chạp không có tiến triển sau khi mua khoảng 2 tuần. Đây là quá trình quản trị danh mục đầu tư, giữ mạnh – bỏ yếu để chuyển tiền sang cơ hội mới tốt hơn, nó sẽ quyết định thành bại của bạn. Đa phần nhà đầu tư sẽ làm ngược lại, bán mạnh – giữ yếu, và thất bại là tất yếu.
Nguyên tắc số 6: Xác định và theo dõi các nhóm ngành mạnh có điều kiện kinh doanh thuận lợi, từ đó tập trung lựa chọn cổ phiếu trong các nhóm ngành mạnh này. Các nhà đầu tư thành công nhất thể giới đều sử dụng nguyên tắc này, ví dụ nguyên tắc “Cổ phiếu lớn – bigstock” của O’Neil, đó là chọn các cổ phiếu thuộc các nhóm ngành đang thuận lợi nhất, đó là các cổ phiếu mà các tổ chức bắt buộc phải mua nếu muốn có hiệu quả đầu tư cao nhất. Nên tập trung vào các cổ phiếu có mức lợi nhuận đột phá vượt lên trên mức bình quân 3-4 quý gần nhất từ 30% trở nên, càng cao càng tốt, hoặc có kỳ vọng lợi nhuận lớn làm xúc tác cho cổ phiếu tăng như sản phẩm mới/dự án mới sắp đưa vào kinh doanh, thâu tóm – sát nhập… Tuyên thấy nhiều tay chơi mới chỉ học vội phần phân tích biểu đồ mà không chú trọng đến yếu tố cơ bản là rất sai lầm, tập trung vào các cổ phiếu cơ bản mạnh sẽ tăng khả năng thành công lên rất nhiều. Cổ phiếu có cơ bản mạnh cũng tăng giá bền bỉ hơn (những mức tăng giá 50-70% trở lên sẽ không phải hiếm) và giúp bạn tự tin giải ngân số vốn lớn.
Nguyên tắc số 7: Sau khi giá tăng một mức đáng kể, thường là trên 20%, cổ phiếu của bạn sẽ rất dễ bị bán tháo chốt lời, điều này có thể xảy ra quá nhanh và mạnh đến mức bạn không tin nổi. Cần phải biết cách thoát ra để giữ lợi nhuận. Điểm thoát ra là khi cổ phiếu giảm xuyên thủng đường xu hướng tăng nối các đáy gần nhất, hoặc khi cổ phiếu hình thành các tín hiệu đảo chiều như mẫu hình 3 con quạ đen, mẫu hình đảo chiều chủ chốt, khoảng trống kiệt sức…
Nguyên tắc số 8: Khi cổ phiếu tăng lên vượt điểm mua, lúc này chỉ nên vào lệnh một nửa tỷ trọng muốn mua, ví dụ 15% NAV, sau đó quan sát tới nửa cuối phiên nếu khối lượng giao dịch tốt và cổ phiếu có vẻ sẽ đóng cửa ở nửa thân trên cây nến ngày hôm đó thì vào tiếp để có vị thế 20-25% tổng tài khoản.
Nguyên tắc số 9: Không nên mua quá 25% NAV cho mỗi vị thế để hạn chế rủi ro, gia tăng cơ hội đồng thời tránh bị áp lực tâm lý do dự khó quyết khi cổ phiếu diễn biến không như ý, nếu cầm 1 vị thế quá lớn bạn sẽ rất khó bán ra khi nó bị bán tháo, khi chốt lãi cũng rất cảm xúc, rất do dự. Nếu cổ phiếu có thanh khoản thấp thì chỉ nên vào lượng nhỏ phù hợp với thanh khoản để có thể nhanh chóng thoát ra khi cần.
Nguyên tắc số 10: Không sử dụng margin cho đến khi bạn đã tinh thông về thị trường, thành thạo về đọc biểu đồ và làm chủ được cảm xúc. Margin có thể thổi bay tài khoản. Với các nhà đầu tư mới tham gia thị trường, việc sử dụng margin có thể khiến cho họ bị cóng, không thể hành động phòng thủ khi xu hướng thị trường thay đổi, vì khoản lỗ có thể bị nhân đôi thành 15% chỉ trong 1 phiên bán tháo, do đó chỉ có thể trơ mắt ngồi nhìn tài khoản tụt giảm mạnh mỗi ngày và hy vọng phép màu xảy ra.
Có nhiều phương pháp để đầu tư, miễn là thành thạo và tuân thủ phương pháp thì sẽ kiếm được tiền. Mười quy tắc ở đây được sử dụng cho nhà giao dịch theo vị thế (position trading) và nhà giao dịch theo vị thế có thiên hướng giao dịch theo giao động, không lạ khi có ý kiến không đồng tình vì nó không được xây dựng cho các nhà đầu tư Buy And Hold hoặc Day Trading.
Lưu ý: Những phần chữ in nghiêng là những ý kiến bổ sung thêm của Tuyên đưa ra, không có trong 10 nguyên tắc nguyên bản của Dan. Đặc biệt, nguyên tắc số 8 và 9 do tuyên bổ sung hoàn toàn vì nó rất quan trọng, tìm đọc cuốn sách Phân tích mẫu hình biểu đồ do Tuyên dịch để tham khảo 10 quy tắc nguyên bản của Dan Zanger.
II/. MƯỜI MẪU HÌNH BIỂU ĐỒ DỰ BÁO XU HƯỚNG MÀ DAN ZANGER THƯỜNG SỬ DỤNG ĐỂ TÌM KIẾM LỢI NHUẬN
“Tôi phát hiện ra rằng các mẫu hình biểu đồ cứ tự chúng lặp đi lặp lại ở những cổ phiếu chiến thắng lớn. Bí quyết để đọc biểu đồ là khả năng nhận diện những mẫu hình này” (Dan Zanger)
Các mẫu hình biểu đồ là một hệ thống để dự đoán xu hướng của cổ phiếu và thị trường chứng khoán! Hàng trăm năm qua việc thống kê các biểu đồ giá đã chỉ ra rằng giá cổ phiếu khi xuất hiện một số mẫu hình biểu đồ sẽ có xu thế tiếp tục di chuyển theo xu hướng hiện tại. Xu hướng đơn giản chỉ là một chỉ báo về sự mất cân bằng về cung cầu. Những thay đổi này thường có thể được nhìn thấy qua hành động của thị trường thông qua những thay đổi về giá.
Những thay đổi về giá này thường hình thành các mẫu biểu đồ có ý nghĩa, có thể đóng vai trò là tín hiệu giúp cố gắng xác định các xu hướng có thể phát triển trong tương lai. Nghiên cứu đã chứng minh rằng một số mẫu hình có xác suất dự báo cao, bao gồm: Cốc & Tay cầm, Nền phẳng, Tam giác dốc lên và tam giác dốc xuống, Đường cong Parabolic, Tam giác đối xứng, Cái nêm, Lá Cờ và Cờ đuôi nheo, Kênh giá và Mô hình Vai Đầu Vai. Đây là một số mô hình tốt nhất để giao dịch.
Phần này được thiết kế nhằm giới thiệu cho bạn một số mẫu biểu đồ có xác xuất dự báo cáo cao như đã nói ở trên, qua đó giúp bạn đưa ra những quyết định kịp thời và chính xác hơn khi dự đoán xu hướng của cổ phiếu và thị trường.
1. Mẫu hình cốc và tay cầm (tiếp diễn xu hướng tăng)
Cốc và tay cầm là vận động điều chỉnh sau khi cổ phiếu tăng mạnh. Nói chung, một cổ phiếu sẽ có một động thái tăng giá mạnh mẽ trong khoảng 2 đến 4 tháng, sau đó trải qua một thị trường điều chỉnh. Các cổ phiếu sẽ bị bán tháo trong đợt điều chỉnh này tạo nên một xu hướng giảm với mức giảm từ 20 đến 35% so với đỉnh cũ. Thời gian hình thành phần chiếc cốc nói chung là từ 8 đến 12 tuần tùy thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường chung.
Khi cổ phiếu tăng trở lại kiểm tra mức đỉnh cũ, cổ phiếu sẽ chịu áp lực bán bởi những người đã mua tại đỉnh hoặc gần mức đỉnh cũ đó. Áp lực bán này sẽ khiến giá cổ phiếu trôi dạt vào một xu hướng đi ngang theo chiều giảm trong khoảng thời gian 4 ngày đến 3 tuần. Phần tay cầm nói chung nằm khoảng 5% dưới điểm đỉnh cũ. Phần tay cầm hình thành thấp hơn nữa thường là một cổ phiếu bị lỗi và có nguy cơ thất bại cao hơn.
Điểm mua của mẫu hình này là khi nó tăng vượt lên cao hơn phần đỉnh của tay cầm.
Nhiều cổ phiếu chiến thắng lớn nhất trên thị trường chứng khoán có cấu trúc nền giá rất mạnh mẽ này, đây là một mẫu hình rất thường gặp. Đây là một trong những cấu trúc tốt nhất và đáng tin cậy nhất để tìm kiếm các cổ phiếu chiến thắng. Các cổ phiếu tốt nhất với cấu trúc cốc và tay cầm này được tìm thấy ở giai đoạn khởi đầu của một thị trường tăng giá.
2. Mẫu hình nền giá phẳng (tiếp diễn xu hướng tăng)
Nền giá phẳng giá lên (Bullish Flat Base) là một mẫu hình tiếp diễn, thường xảy ra sau một đợt tăng giá kéo dài. Hành động giá sẽ di chuyển theo một mẫu hình rất phẳng và đi ngang sau khi thiết lập được một mức kháng cự. Đặc điểm duy nhất của mẫu hình này là hành động giá kéo dài, gần như nằm ngang với khối lượng giảm trước khi xảy ra điểm phá vỡ. (Chú ý mẫu hình nền giá phẳng của Dan Zanger khác với của O’Neil).
Tỷ lệ thành công: 68%, và tăng lên 83% nếu chờ đợi sự xác nhận bằng một phiên phá vỡ lên trên mức Kháng cự.
Thời gian: Mẫu hình này có thể mất đến ba tháng để hình thành.
Khối lượng: Khối lượng sẽ cạn kiệt sau khi chạm mức Kháng cự và giá hợp nhất theo chiều ngang. Thông thường, yêu cầu khối lượng lớn hơn 150% mức bình quân tại điểm phá vỡ thoát khỏi mẫu hình theo chiều đi lên.
Rủi ro: Tương tự với bất kỳ mẫu hình nền giá nằm ngang nào, các điểm phá vỡ giả đi kèm khối lượng yếu là thường gặp.
Giao dịch theo mẫu hình nền giá phẳng: Xác định các đường Hỗ trợ và Kháng cự của mẫu hình. Các điểm “phá vỡ hướng lên giả” là thường gặp ở đường Kháng cự, tạo ra “bẫy tăng giá” cho những nhà giao dịch không đủ kiên nhẫn chờ sự xác nhận khối lượng cần thiết của điểm phá vỡ mẫu hình. Điểm phá vỡ sẽ tạo ra một chuyển động giá bùng nổ thoát khỏi mẫu hình, mức tăng giá trung bình là 63% tính từ điểm phá vỡ đường Kháng cự!
3. Mẫu hình kênh giá – Channel Pattern
Mẫu hình kênh giá nói chung nên được coi là kiểu mẫu hình tiếp diễn xu hướng. Chúng là những vùng giá ở đó bên mua và bán lưỡng lự, thường kết thúc bằng việc giá tiếp tục di chuyển theo chiều của xu hướng trước đó. Nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng cổ phiếu xuất hiện mẫu hình này sẽ tiếp tục di chuyển theo chiều của xu hướng một cách thường xuyên hơn nhiều so với trường hợp di chuyển ngược lại. Tất nhiên, các đường xu hướng chạy song song trong một hình chữ nhật. Cung và cầu dường như cân bằng tại thời điểm này. Người mua và người bán cũng có vẻ cân bằng. Các “đỉnh” bằng nhau liên tục được kiểm tra, các “đáy” bằng nhau cũng như vậy. Cổ phiếu dao động tăng giảm trong phạm vi hai giá trị đỉnh và đáy này một cách rõ ràng.
Mặc dù khối lượng dường như không có ảnh hưởng như trong các mẫu hình khác, nhưng thường có sự giảm khối lượng trong mẫu hình kênh giá. Tương tự những mẫu hình khác, khối lượng nên gia tăng đáng kể ở điểm phá vỡ.
4. Mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng (Symmetrical Triangles)
Mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng là đặc điểm của các vùng lưỡng lự, ở đó thị trường tạm dừng và nghi ngờ về chiều hướng trong tương lai. Thông thường, lực cung và cầu tại thời điểm đó được coi là gần bằng nhau. Sau đây là những đặc điểm điển hình của mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng:
- Nỗ lực đẩy giá tăng lên cao hơn của bên mua nhanh chóng được đáp ứng bởi bên bán, trong khi đó các đợt nhúng giá xuống được bên mua coi là món hời.
- Vận động này tạo ra các đỉnh mới thấp hơn và các đáy mới nông hơn so với trước, tạo thành hình dạng một hình tam giác nằm ngang. Lưu ý khối lượng giao dịch có xu hướng giảm dần trong giai đoạn này.
- Cuối cùng, tình trạng do dự này được đáp ứng với sự quyết tâm cao và thông thường đẩy giá bùng nổ ra khỏi mô hình này, thường đi kèm với khối lượng lớn.
Nghiên cứu đã chỉ ra rằng cổ phiếu xuất hiện mãu hình tam giác đối xứng có tỷ lệ rất cao sẽ tiếp tục di chuyển theo xu hướng trước đó. Mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng (theo Dan) là mô hình giao dịch tiếp diễn xu hướng tuyệt vời.
5. Mẫu hình tam giác dốc lên – Ascending Triangle Pattern (tiếp diễn xu hướng tăng)
Tam giác dốc lên là một biến thể của tam giác đối xứng. Tam giác dốc lên thường được coi là mẫu hình tăng giá và mẫu hình này đáng tin cậy nhất khi xuất hiện trong xu hướng tăng. Phần trên cùng của hình tam giác có vẻ phẳng, trong khi phần dưới của tam giác có phần dốc lên. Dưới đây là mẫu hình tam giác dốc lên điển hình.
- Trong các tam giác dốc lên, cổ phiếu trở nên quá mua và giá bị quay đầu giảm trở lại.
- Bên mua sau đó tái gia nhập thị trường và giá sẽ sớm đạt đến đỉnh cũ, tại đây giá một lần nữa quay đầu giảm trở lại.
- Bên mua sau đó tái xuất hiện ở mức đáy cao hơn trước.
- Giá cuối cùng vượt qua các đỉnh cũ và được đẩy lên cao hơn khi những người mua mới tham gia.
Tương tự trong trường hợp mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng, điểm phá vỡ mô hình tam giác dốc lên thường đi kèm với sự gia tăng khối lượng rõ rệt.
6. Mẫu hình tam giác dốc xuống – Descending Triangle Pattern (tiếp diễn xu hướng giảm)
Mẫu hình tam giác hướng xuống thường được coi là mô hình báo hiệu giảm giá và thường được tìm thấy trong xu hướng giảm.
Khác với tam giác tăng dần, phần cạnh dưới của tam giác dốc xuống có dạng nằm ngang. Cạnh trên của tam giác dốc xuống là một đường nghiêng chúi xuống. Giá cổ phiếu rơi đến một điểm ở đó cổ phiếu bị quá bán. Bên mua thăm dò tham gia vào cổ phiếu ở các đáy, làm cho giá cổ phiếu ngóc lên. Tuy nhiên, vùng giá cao hơn thu hút nhiều lực bán hơn khiến giá cổ phiếu giảm xuống kiểm định lại các đáy cũ. Bên mua sau đó một lần nữa thăm dò vào lại cổ phiếu đẩy giá ngóc lên. Giá tốt hơn lại tiếp tục thu hút lực bán nhiều hơn. Cuối cùng bên bán kiểm soát thị trường và ép giá giảm xuyên qua đáy cũ của mô hình này, trong khi bên mua vội vã rời bỏ vị thế (cắt lỗ) làm cho giá tiếp tục đi theo xu hướng giảm trước đó.
Tương tự mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng và tam giác dốc lên, khối lượng có xu hướng giảm dần trong quá trình hình thành mẫu hình tam giác dốc xuống, và tăng lên tại điểm phá thủng cạnh dưới của mẫu hình.
7. Mẫu hình cái nêm (Wedge Formation Pattern)
Hình dạng của mẫu hình cái nêm tương tự mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng, chúng đều có các đường xu hướng hội tụ cùng nhau ở một đỉnh. Tuy nhiên, cái nêm khác biệt bởi góc nghiêng rõ rệt ở mặt trên hoặc mặt dưới. Tương tự ở mẫu hình tam giác, khối lượng sẽ giảm dần trong quá trình hình thành mẫu hình và gia tăng khi phá vỡ mẫu hình. Sau đây là hai mẫu hình cái nêm điển hình:
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- Mẫu hình cái nêm hướng xuống (falling wedge) thường thấy trong xu hướng tăng, thường là mẫu hình dự báo tiếp diễn xu hướng tăng. Nhưng nó cũng có thể được tìm thấy trong các xu hướng giảm, hàm ý nói chung vẫn là tăng. Mẫu hình này được đánh dấu bởi một loạt các đỉnh thấp hơn và đáy thấp hơn. Điểm mua là khi giá cắt lên vượt khỏi đường xu hướng phía trên với khối lượng gia tăng.
- Mẫu hình cái nêm hồi phục (rising wedge) thường thấy trong xu hướng giảm, thường là mô hình dự báo tiếp diễn xu hướng giảm. Chúng cũng có thể được tìm thấy trong các xu hướng tăng, nhưng nhìn chung vẫn được coi là mô hình báo hiệu giảm giá. Mẫu hình cái nên hồi phục được đặt trong một chuỗi các đỉnh cao hơn và các đáy cao hơn. Điểm bán của mẫu hình là khi giá cắt xuống khỏi đường xu hướng phía dưới với khối lượng gia tăng.
8. Mẫu hình lá cờ chữ nhật và lá cờ đuôi nheo (Flag and Pennant Pattern)
Mẫu hình lá cờ và lá cờ đuôi nheo là các mẫu hình tiếp diễn xu hướng. Chúng thường tượng trưng cho sự tạm nghỉ ngắn ở một cổ phiếu năng động, thường thấy ngay sau một đợt di chuyển lớn và nhanh. Cổ phiếu sau khi xuất hiện mẫu hình này thường cất cánh một lần nữa theo cùng hướng trước đó. Nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng hai mẫu hình này là hai trong số những mẫu hình tiếp diễn đáng tin cậy nhất. Dưới đây là đặc điểm của mẫu hình lá cờ và cờ đuôi nheo tiêu biểu.
- Mẫu hình lá cờ tăng (Bullish flag) đặc trưng bởi các đỉnh thấp hơn và các đáy thấp hơn, với hình dạng xiên nghiêng ngược với xu hướng trước đó. Nhưng khác với mẫu hình cái nêm, đường xu hướng của mẫu hình lá cờ chạy song song với nhau.
- Mẫu hình lá cờ giảm (Bearish flag) bao gồm các đỉnh cao hơn và các đáy cao hơn. Lá cờ “gấu” cũng có một xu hướng dốc lên ngược với xu hướng giảm trước đó. Các đường xu hướng chạy song song là tốt.
- Mẫu hình cờ đuôi nheo trông rất giống mẫu hình tam giác đối xứng. Nhưng mẫu hình cờ đuôi nheo thường có kích thước nhỏ hơn (độ biến động nhỏ hơn) và diễn ra trong khoảng thời gian ngắn hơn so với tam giác đối xứng. Khối lượng thường co hẹp lại trong thời gian hình thành mẫu hình và gia tăng ở điểm phá vỡ.
9. Mẫu hình Vai Đầu Vai và Vai Đầu Vai đảo ngược
Mẫu hình vai đầu vai – kết thúc xu hướng tăng
Mẫu hình vai đầu vai thường được coi là mẫu hình đảo chiều báo hiệu bắt đầu xu hướng giảm, thường thấy trong các xu hướng tăng. Mẫu hình này đáng tin cậy nhất khi được tìm thấy trong một xu hướng tăng. Cuối cùng, thị trường bắt đầu giảm từ từ, sức mạnh của bên cung và cầu thường được coi là cân bằng khi mẫu hình đang hình thành. Dưới đây là những mô tả điển hình của mẫu hình đầu và vai:
- Bên bán đổ hàng ra bán ở đỉnh làm cổ phiếu giảm xuống tạo thành vai trái (điểm bắt đầu của đường viền cổ).
- Bên mua sớm quay trở lại thị trường và cuối cùng đẩy giá vượt qua vai trái lên đỉnh mới (đầu).
- Tuy nhiên, từ đỉnh mới này giá cổ phiếu nhanh chóng quay đầu và chiều hướng giảm được kiểm tra lại lần nữa (tạo thành điểm thứ 2 của đường viền cổ)
- Lực mua thăm dò lại xuất hiện làm cho cổ phiếu phục hồi lần nữa, nhưng không thể đẩy giá vượt qua đỉnh trước đó. Đỉnh cuối cùng này được coi là vai phải.
- Lực mua cạn kiệt và giá đi xuống một lần nữa để kiểm tra đường xu hướng. Đường xu hướng của mẫu hình này được vẽ bằng cách nối điểm thấp nhất của vai trái với điểm thấp nhất của vai phải.
Khối lượng có một tầm quan trọng vô cùng lớn trong Mô hình Vai Đầu Vai. Khối lượng thường gia tăng khi giá tăng lên đỉnh của phần vai trái. Tuy nhiên, phần đầu được hình thành với khối lượng giảm cho thấy người mua không hung hãn như trước đây. Và trong nỗ lực hồi phục cuối cùng ở phần vai phải, khối lượng thậm chí còn thấp hơn ở phần đầu, báo hiệu rằng bên mua có thể đã kiệt sức. Lực bán đổ vào thị trường và những người mua trước đó rời đi. Mẫu hình được hoàn thành khi giá xuyên thủng đường viền cổ. Khối lượng phải gia tăng ở điểm phá vỡ đường viền cổ.
Mẫu hình vai đầu vai ngược – kết thúc xu hướng giảm
Mẫu hình Vai Đầu Vai ngược thường thấy trong các xu hướng giảm. Điều đáng chú ý về Mẫu hình Vai đầu vai ngược là ở khối lượng. Sau đây là những mô tả điển hình của Mẫu hình Vai Đầu Vai ngược:
- Phần vai trái ngược phải đi kèm với sự gia tăng khối lượng.
- Phần đầu ngược nên có khối lượng thấp hơn phần vai trái khi giá đang giảm xuống.
- Tuy nhiên, sự hồi phục từ phần đầu ngược sẽ có khối lượng lớn hơn sự hồi phục từ phần vai trái.
- Cuối cùng, phần vai phải ngược nên có khối lượng thấp nhất so với phần đầu và phần vai trái.
- Sau đó, khi cổ phiếu tăng vượt qua đường viền cổ, cần có sự gia tăng lớn về khối lượng.
Khối lượng thường gia tăng ở phần vai trái ngược. Tuy nhiên, phần đầu ngược được hình thành với khối lượng giảm cho thấy bên bán không còn hung hãn như trước đây. Và trong nỗ lực giảm cuối cùng ở phần vai phải ngược, khối lượng thậm chí còn thấp hơn ở phần đầu ngược, báo hiệu rằng bên bán có thể đã kiệt sức. Lực mua mới tham gia vào cổ phiếu và những người bán trước đó rời khỏi cuộc chơi. Mẫu hình được hoàn thành khi giá tăng lên phá vỡ đường viền cổ. Khối lượng phải tăng ở điểm phá vỡ đường viền cổ.
10. Mẫu hình đường cong Parabol
Đường cong Parabolic có lẽ là một trong những mẫu được đánh giá cao và được tìm kiếm nhiều nhất. Mô hình này có thể mang lại cho bạn lợi nhuận lớn nhất và nhanh nhất trong thời gian ngắn nhất. Nói chung, bạn sẽ tìm thấy một vài trong số các mẫu này ở cuối hoặc gần cuối của một thị trường tăng giá lớn. Mẫu hình này là kết quả cuối cùng của sự phá vỡ nhiều cấu trúc nền giá.
Đây còn được gọi là mẫu hình bậc thang, nó cũng có nhiều điểm tương đồng với mẫu hình nền giá dốc nên do O’Neil đề xuất.
Ở chiều mua, điểm mua là khi giá phá vỡ từ đợt điều chỉnh tích lũy thứ 3. Ở chiều bán, điểm bán là khi giá phá thủng đường xu hướng dốc nhất để đi xuống (các đường xu hướng dốc lên với độ dôc tăng dần tạo thành hình đường cong parabol, khi giá phá thủng đường xu hướng dốc nhất đi xuống là điểm bán).
Những gì trình bày ở đây là sơ lược, nghiên cứu cuốn sách “Phân tích mẫu hình biểu đồ: Những bí quyết giúp nhà giao dịch chứng khoán siêu hạng Dan Zanger kiếm 42 triệu $ từ 11.000$ trong 23 tháng” do Khúc Ngọc Tuyên và các cộng sự biên dịch để năm được chi tiết về các quy tắc và mẫu hình nói trên.
Khúc Ngọc Tuyên dịch, theo chartpattern.com – website của Dan Zanger, có bổ sung nhiều nội dung quan trọng theo kinh nghiệm của Tuyên
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Valdes-Dapena, Peter (September 22, 2022). “Hertz is buying up to 175,000 electric autos from GM | CNN Enterprise”.
Valdes-Dapena, Peter (January 11, 2024). “Hertz is selling 1/three of its electric vehicles to buy gasoline vehicles as a substitute”.
Iati, Marisa (February 11, 2022). “Hertz claims hundreds of renters steal vehicles. Clients argue they’ve been falsely accused”.
Ewing, Jack (January 11, 2024). “Hertz Will Shrink Electric Fleet After Being Burned by Tesla’s Value Cuts”.
This web page was last edited on 4 January 2024, at
22:34 (UTC). This page was last edited on 20 August 2024, at 00:27 (UTC).
This web page was final edited on 6 November 2023, at 14:
06 (UTC). Wayland, Michael (November 9, 2021). “Shares of Hertz fall 9.8% on first day of Nasdaq relisting”.
Lewis, Michelle (October 25, 2021). “Hertz orders 100,000 Teslas, the one-largest EV purchase ever, with Tom Brady marketing campaign”.
Bursztynsky, Jessica (October 27, 2021). “Uber will supply up to 50,000 Teslas to its drivers by Hertz rental deal”.
Bellon, Tina (October 27, 2021). “Uber partners with Hertz to supply 50,000 Tesla rentals to U.S. journey-hail drivers”.
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Colin Such, Warwick & Warwick, quoted in “Highlight: Investing in stamps” by Anthony Beachey, Investment Adviser, 18
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