Xu hướng thị trường xấu đi khi xuất hiện các tín hiệu thứ cấp báo hiệu vùng đỉnh, phòng thủ là việc cần ưu tiên, TAC đang phá vỡ nền giá với KQKD mạnh mẽ nhưng mua cổ phiếu lúc này tiềm ẩn nhiều rủi ro
Thị trường bất ngờ chịu lực bán giá thấp, trong đó cung được đẩy mạnh vào phiên ATC. VNIndex đóng cửa giảm mạnh 40.46 điểm về mức 1227.82 điểm (-3.19%), đánh dấu phiên giảm mạnh nhất trong hơn 2 tháng qua kể từ sau phiên ngày 8/2. Áp lực lớn lên thị trường đến từ nhóm VN30 khi không mã nào trong nhóm tăng điểm và chỉ số đóng cửa mất 3.13% điểm số về ngưỡng 1271.53 điểm.
Trên toàn thị trường, có đến 365 mã giảm điểm trong khi quy mô ở nhóm giữ được sắc xanh chỉ là 80 mã. VHM, VIC, CTG, BID, MSN, HPG, VRE, TCB, GAS và GVR trong nhóm VN30 là những mã tác động mạnh lên toàn thị trường, trong đó MSN, SBT, SSI và VRE giảm sàn.
Áp lực lan tỏa rộng sang nhóm vốn hóa vừa và nhỏ, VNMidcap Index có mức giảm lớn nhất trong các chỉ số khi mất -4.25% giá trị, VNSmallcap Index cũng không khả quan hơn với mức giảm -2.95%. Hầu hết các cổ phiếu thành phần đều chìm trong sắc đỏ và nhiều mã cũng giảm hết biên độ như ITA, PVD, AAA, HAG, HBC, KBC, HSG,….
Trên HOSE, thanh khoản giao dịch vẫn duy trì ở mức cao, giá trị giao dịch khớp lệnh đạt 18.593 tỷ, giảm -12.2% so với quy mô của phiên liền trước.
Khối ngoại nối dài chuỗi bán ròng với tổng giá trị đạt -134.33 tỷ đồng, tập trung chủ yếu ở HPG (-236.5 tỷ đồng), VPB (-149.1 tỷ đồng), VSC (-118.7 tỷ đồng), VRE (-83 tỷ đồng),… Ngược lại, NĐTNN ưu tiên mua MWG nhiều nhất với giá trị đột biến +662.5 tỷ đồng qua kênh giao dịch thỏa thuận, bên cạnh đó là VIC cũng được mua vào với giá trị +133.3 tỷ đồng, dù vậy vẫn không thể giúp thị trường thoát khỏi tình trạng bị bán ròng liên tục.
Trên sàn Hà Nội, HNX Index và UPCOM Index cùng chung trạng thái, lần lượt giảm mạnh -3.18% và -2.42% khi đóng cửa.
Xu hướng thị trường xấu đi
Mặc dù thanh khoản và KLGD giảm đi so với phiên trước đó, không đạt yêu cầu của ngày phân phối, nhưng chỉ số biến động giảm quá rộng, lỏng lẻo, dòng tiền bị rút khỏi cả nhóm vốn hoá lớn, chỉ số giảm xuống dưới ngưỡng MA10 ngày, và thị trường đã ở vào tuần thứ 11 kể từ đáy, sau khi một loạt blue chip tăng trần đã đảo chiều giảm xuống, là tín hiệu đỉnh của thị trường. Một loạt tín hiệu thứ cấp báo hiệu đỉnh kể trên đã làm cho xu hướng thị trường bị suy yếu, củng cố thêm bằng chứng để hạ cấp thị trường.
Mặc dù vẫn duy trì 3 phiên phân phối, nhưng với những tín hiệu thứ cấp kể trên, xu hướng thị trường vẫn bị hạ xuống “xu hướng tăng gặp áp lực”.
Trong xu hướng tăng gặp áp lực, nhà đầu tư nên ưu tiên việc phòng thủ, tận dụng những nhịp hồi để gia tăng tích trữ tiền mặt, hạn chế giải ngân mua mới. Đồng thời, tín hiệu dòng tiền rút khỏi Vn30 nên ngay cả điểm mua trên VHM và VCB cũng trở nên rủi ro. Chúng tôi khuyến nghị dừng giải ngân mua, kể cả nhóm Blue chip.
Thị trường có thể phục hồi tại các ngưỡng hỗ trợ quan trọng
Vùng hỗ trợ mạnh 1.990 – 1.200 có thể giúp Vnindex sớm có nhịp hồi phục trở lại, nhưng xu hướng thị trường xấu đi, và vùng 1260-1280 là vùng cản mạnh, nên hành động phù hợp là tận dụng nhịp hồi phục để giảm tỷ trọng, sau đó giữ tiền chờ đợi giai đoạn thị trường vận động chặt chẽ hơn.
Đối với các vị thế đã giảm quá mức cắt lỗ 10% thì nên chờ đợi sự phục hồi để giảm thua lỗ, với các vị thế còn trong vùng cắt lỗ 7-10% thì nên cắt giảm tỷ trọng, tránh để khoản lỗ lớn thêm. Các vị thế chưa về tới tài khoản gồm VHM và VCB thì tạm thời chưa cần lo lắng vì hai cổ phiếu này vẫn chưa gãy xu hướng, nhất là VCB. Hơn nữa, hai cổ phiếu này nếu có giảm mạnh thì sớm muộn cũng tăng trở lại ở các nhịp tăng sau này của thị trường, nhưng tốt nhất nếu khi hàng về giá giảm không quá sâu thì vẫn nên bán ra thu tiền mặt.
HSG, PET và HPG là các cổ phiếu có KQKD rất mạnh, nên dù đang bị bán tháo nhưng vẫn có cơ hội hồi phục trở lại, nếu khoản lỗ được phục hồi thì chúng ta cũng hạ tỷ trọng và chờ đợi điểm vào khác tốt hơn.
CCL đã thông báo KQKD quý 1 với doanh thu tăng tốt nhưng lợi nhuận sau thuế không đạt kỳ vọng, chỉ đạt 21 tỷ, tăng trưởng 12%. Nhưng đây là cổ phiếu còn tiềm năng dài hạn, và như mục đích ban đầu, chúng tôi mua CCL cho mục tiêu dài hạn, tương tự việc đầu tư tiền xây nhà cho thuê thì việc giữ dài hạn nhận cổ tức cũng là phương án hợp lý trong khi chờ đợi các báo cáo tài chính mạnh mẽ hơn. Đây là cổ phiếu có mô hình kinh doanh rất đơn giản, quỹ đất còn rất lớn, giá đất đang tăng lên mạnh, định giá tài sản còn hấp dẫn, nếu NĐT không sử dụng margin và không có áp lực ngắn hạn về dòng tiền, giá vốn thấp thì có thể để dài hạn như cách của chúng tôi.
TAC báo cáo KQKD tăng trưởng rất tốt cả doanh thu và lợi nhuận, đang phá vỡ mẫu hình tam giác dốc lên
TAC vừa ra báo cáo Quý 1 với doanh thu tăng trưởng 60%, lãi sau thuế tăng trưởng 160% so với cùng kỳ, giá vừa bật tăng phá vỡ mẫu hình nền giá tam giác dốc lên. Nhưng trong điều kiện thị trường hiện nay thì mua cổ phiếu tiềm ẩn nhiều rủi ro.
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