Nhật báo IBD ngày 01/06/2022
Chứng khoán giảm điểm trước cảnh báo kinh tế Mỹ đối mặt “bão tố” nhưng cần lưu ý điểm này
Chứng khoán Mỹ đóng cửa giảm sau một phiên giao dịch đầy biến động. Cú giảm này dường như là sự tiêu hóa một phần điểm số sau đợt phục hồi vừa qua hơn là một cú lao dốc đột ngột trước cảnh báo kinh tế có thể sẽ đối mặt với một cơn bão tố.
Khối lượng một lần nữa đóng vai trò quan trọng. Việc giảm điểm với khối lượng thấp và dưới mức trung bình đã kéo S&P và Nasdaq khỏi nguy cơ có thêm một ngày phân phối.
Chỉ số Nasdaq giảm 0.7%, đóng cửa nằm giữa biên độ giá trong ngày. Hiện Nasdaq vẫn nằm trên đường trung bình động 21 ngày, đó là một điểm cộng.
Chỉ số S&P 500 chứng tỏ nỗ lực phục hồi vào vùng tích cực khi chỉ dừng lại ở mức giảm 0,7% trong phiên vừa qua. Nó vẫn giữ vững vị trí nằm giữa đường MA21 và MA50 ngày.
Mặc dù vậy, sự thể hiện của các nhóm ngành trên S&P500 lại kể một câu chuyện khác.
Chúng đều nằm trong vùng tiêu cực ngoại trừ cổ phiếu năng lượng, lĩnh vực đã có động lực tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ. Y tế và tài chính là nhóm tệ hại nhất trong phiên vừa qua.
Dow Jones thể hiện tốt nhất trong những chỉ số chính khi kết phiên chỉ giảm 0.5%. Salesforce (CRM) rõ ràng là cổ phiếu dẫn dắt của chỉ số này khi tăng 9,9% nhờ kết quả kinh doanh quý. Walmart (WMT) và 3M (MMM) lại vận động kém khi giảm lần lượt 2,5% và 1,9%.
Cổ phiếu tăng trưởng thể hiện tích cực trong bối cảnh yếu ớt
Cổ phiếu tăng trưởng thể hiện ấn tượng nhất trong phiên nay khi nỗ lực tăng điểm. Chỉ số Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) đóng cửa với mức tăng 1,2%. Điều đó đồng nghĩa chỉ số này đang tiếp tục chiến đấu để lấy lại những gì đã mất là mức sụt giảm gần 29% kể từ đầu năm.
So với cổ phiếu tăng trưởng thì cổ phiếu vốn hóa nhỏ thể hiện có phần hơi thất vọng khi Russell 2000 giảm 0,5%.
Vẫn còn những mây mù giăng lối thị trường mặc dù trạng thái uptrend được xác nhận. Các nhà đầu tư nên cân nhắc việc thực hiện từ từ những vị thế nhỏ và sau đó mới mạnh dạn mua thêm nếu thị trường uptrend trong mạnh mẽ.
Jamie Dimon lo ngại
CEO của ngân hàng quyền lực JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Jamie Dimon đã khiến tâm lý thị trường tích cực hơn khi ông dịu giọng về một cuộc suy thoái có thể xảy ra ở Mỹ hồi tuần trước. Nhưng tâm trạng của ông đã trở nên tồi tệ trong 8 ngày vừa qua.
“Tôi từng nói, có những đám mây mù phía trước. Nhưng tôi đang thay đổi suy nghĩ, nó thực ra là một cơn bão tố”, ông cho biết tại một cuộc hội thảo AllianceBernstein hôm thứ Tư.
Dimon tin rằng, hiện tại mọi thứ có vẻ đang ổn bởi mọi người tự tin việc Fed có thể giải quyết được những vấn đề kinh tế, nhưng điều đó có thể không trở thành hiện thực.
“Cơn bão đó ở ngay trước mắt. Tôi không biết nó là một cơn bảo nhỏ hay là siêu bão Sandy. Và bạn nên chuẩn bị tinh thần”
Chỉ mới tuần trước, vị CEO này có nói, các vấn đề kinh tế không có vẻ sẽ gây ra một cơn bão tố giống như những gì đã diễn ra trước cuộc suy thoái khủng khiếp năm 2008.
Trong khi đó, chỉ số PMI sản xuất của Institute for Supply Management tăng lên mức 56,1 vào tháng 5 từ 55,4 của tháng Tư. Điều này tích cực hơn dự đoán sẽ giảm về 54,5.
Trong khi đó, chuyên gia phân tích thị trường cấp cao của Oanda, ông Edward Moya cho biết dữ liệu kinh tế tích cực đã thực sự làm gia tăng kỳ vọng Fed sẽ không giảm bớt chiến lược tăng lãi suất, đặc biệt là sau động thái tăng lãi suất mạnh mẽ của ngân hàng trung ương Canada.
“Nền kinh tế Mỹ trông vẫn khá ổn và điều đó có nghĩa Fed có thể sẽ thực hiện việc tăng lãi suất chỉ ở mức 0,5% trong mùa hè này”, ông này cho biết.
Cổ phiếu năng lượng tăng vọt; phân bón bốc mùi
Phong độ của các nhóm ngành là một chỉ số biết nói khác cho biết khu vực nào đang tỏa sáng.
Hôm nay là một ngày đẹp trời với các cổ phiếu năng lượng khi các nhà khai thác, sản xuất dầu khí đều bứt phá. Cổ phiếu than đá cũng thể hiện sự mạnh mẽ.
Trái lại, cổ phiếu hóa chất nông nghiệp- vẫn tăng tích cực trong năm nay- lại trở thành một trong những cái tế tệ hại nhất. Cổ phiếu phân bón như CF Industries (CF) và Nutrien (NTR) đều bốc hơi hơn 3%.
Các nhà bán lẻ tiêu dùng và đặc sản cũng có phiên giao dịch trì trệ trong khi cổ phiếu cho vay tiêu dùng cũng cùng cảnh ngộ.
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