Nhật báo IBD ngày 27/06/2022
Chứng khoán giảm điểm; Cần theo dõi gì khi thị trường nỗ lực xây nền uptrend.
Những phiên sau ngày bùng nổ theo đà cũng quan trọng không kém khi mà nhìn vào nó, người ta biết thị trường có đang xây một cái nền vững cho một xu hướng uptrend mới hay không.
Cũng giống như bất cứ một phi công giỏi nào, các nhà đầu tư nên thận trọng trong tuần này.
Việc tăng điểm mạnh mẽ kèm khối lượng lớn hôm thứ 6 dẫn đến việc xác nhận phục hồi cho chỉ số Nasdaq và S&P 500. Tín hiệu này khiến thay đổi triển vọng thị trường của IBD thành xu hướng tăng được xác nhận và cởi trói tâm lý nhà đầu tư trong việc giải ngân mua cổ phiếu.
Như thường lệ, chúng ta cần hành động theo kiểu dò đường. Mua từng phần và chỉ bổ sung nếu cổ phiếu tăng tốt. Đặc biệt phải lên kế hoạch cho thời điểm bán cổ phiếu, giả sử như khi lỗ tối đa 7% đối với bất kỳ giao dịch nào.
Thứ Hai, thị trường chứng khoán quay lại trong bất ổn sau một tuần tăng điểm. Mức tăng khi mở cửa nhanh chóng tan mất. Nasdaq kết phiên giảm 0,7% trong khi S&P 500 và Dow Jones giảm lần lượt 0,3 và 0,2%.
Chỉ số Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) vượt trội thị trường với mức tăng 2.5%. Cổ phiếu y tế và năng lượng mang đến phần lớn sức mạnh cho thị trường ngày hôm nay.
Cổ phiếu vốn hóa nhỏ thể hiện khá khẩm hơn các chỉ số chính khi Russell 2000 kết phiên tăng 0.3%.
Tuần này nên quan sát những gì
Sự thành bại của ngày bùng nổ theo đà sẽ được xác định bởi những ngày giao dịch tiếp theo. Một ngày phân phối trong tuần này được xem là một tín hiệu xấu. Nếu S&P 500 hoặc Nasdaq cắt xuống mức đáy của hôm thứ 6 thì cũng gọi là xấu.
Nếu uptrend có thể kéo dài, đây cũng là một thời điểm quan trọng để thực hiện những giao dịch đầu tiên.
IBD 50 đột nhiên xuất hiện nhiều hơn các cổ phiếu đang trong nền giá. Danh sách hôm thứ Hai có ít nhất 17 cổ phiếu đang trong nền giá hai đáy, cốc tay cầm, nền giá phẳng và một vài nền giá đẹp khác.
Nhiều cái tên nổi bật đó đến từ cổ phiếu y tế. Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ), AstraZeneca (AZN) và Novo Nordisk (NVO) đang trong nền giá đẹp với đường sức mạnh tương đối lập đỉnh mới.
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) chạm điểm mua tay cầm 98,84 với khối lượng thấp.
Cổ phiếu y tế dẫn sóng thị trường
Thực tế, y tế đang là lĩnh vực được yêu thích ở thời điểm hiện tại. Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) đã giảm mức lỗ về chỉ còn 2%, trở thành cổ phiếu tốt nhất tháng trên S&P ETF.
Nhưng thị trường uptrend lành mạnh nên được thể hiện trên diện rộng. Lĩnh vực y tế chỉ chiếm dưới 15% chỉ số S&P 500.
Một lý do khác khiến nhà đầu tư nên thận trọng đó là chất lượng của ngày bùng nổ theo đà. Việc tái cơ cấu chỉ số Russell hôm thứ Sáu đã khiến khối lượng giao dịch bùng nổ vào những phút cuối. Nếu không có sự kiện 1 năm 1 lần này, khối lượng giao dịch của thị trường hôm đó sẽ thấp hơn và có thể chúng ta cũng chưa ghi nhận ngày bùng nổ theo đà.
Cổ phiếu tăng trưởng đã bị thương nghiêm trọng và cần nhiều thời gian để phục hồi. Hãy tưởng tượng nó giống như một chiếc xe hơi, không phải chỉ là các vết xước mà nó là những chấn thương rất nặng ở mặt trước và thậm chí ở khung xe.
Chỉ số công nghệ Nasdaq giảm hơn 26% kể từ đầu năm. Nó đã trải qua một nửa năm giao dịch tồi tệ nhất trong lịch sử, theo Dow Jones Market Data. Russell 2000 thì giảm 21% và cũng có 6 tháng giao dịch kinh hoàng.
Thị trường chứng khoán đối mặt rào cản kinh tế
Và bạn đừng quên chúng ta đang ở trong một bối cảnh kinh tế đầy thử thách. Một số chuyên gia kinh tế tin rằng, một cuộc suy thoái có thể diễn ra khi mà suy thoái đang ăn mòn sức chi tiêu tiêu dùng và đẩy chi phí sản xuất lên cao.
Chẳng đâu xa, nhiều phiên cùng nổ theo đà vào tháng 12, 1,3 và 5 đều rủ nhau thất bại.
Điểm sáng là kỳ vọng lãi suất đang giảm dần. Cuối tuần trước, chỉ số lãi suất tương lai là hơn 350 điểm cơ sở cho chính sách thắt chặt tiền tệ năm 2022, theo báo cáo từ UBS. Nhưng nó đã giảm xuống 330 điểm khi đóng cửa phiên thứ Sáu.
Trong phiên vừa qua, lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm của Mỹ tăng 7 điểm cơ sở lên 3,19%.
Theo nhật báo IBD, Ninh TSI biên dịch
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