[Nhật báo IBD 9/3/2021] Thị trường chứng khoán suy yếu cuối ngày, không thể duy trì hành động tăng giá hôm thứ sáu; Chỉ số NASDAQ bị ăn đạp
03/08/2021 06:04 AM ET
Cổ phiếu giảm tệ hại vào thứ Hai, làm cụt hứng cú đảo chiều tăng giá vào ngày thứ Sáu. Các chỉ số diễn biến trái chiều trong phần lớn thời gian trong ngày, cho đến phiên chiều, bị bán xuống là chiều hướng chủ đạo của thị trường chứng khoán.
Chỉ số Nasdaq composite đã cố gắng giữ mức tăng trong vài giờ giao dịch đầu tiên, sau đó bắt đầu giảm như cách nó vận động nhiều lần trong hai tuần qua. Chỉ số Nasdaq composite đóng cửa giảm 2,4% và ở nằm tại mức thấp nhất trong phiên.
Phiên đảo chiều tích cực ngày thứ Sáu cho thấy hy vọng thị trường chứng khoán tạo đáy. Nasdaq đã phục hồi từ mức giảm -2,6% trong ngày hôm đó và đóng cửa tăng 1,5%. Nhưng đà tăng này đã không tiếp diễn vào phiên GD thứ Hai. Trên thực tế, thị trường mở nhạt về cuối ngày thế này là dấu hiệu tiềm ẩn của sự suy yếu.
Thông thường, ngày đảo chiều tích cực với một biên độ dao động giá dài như hôm thứ Sáu sẽ tạo tiền đề cho một đợt phục hồi dài hơn. Một phiên giao dịch thất vọng tương tự thế này đã xảy ra vài tuần trước, khi đó ngày đảo chiều 23 tháng 2 không duy trì được sức mạnh.
S&P 500 cũng không có nhiều đà tăng giá sau phiên GD thứ Sáu. Chỉ số này đóng cửa giảm -0,5%, nằm dưới cả đường EMA21 ngày và đường MA50 ngày.
Nỗ lực hồi phục của thị trường chứng khoán vẫn còn hiệu lực
Mặc dù bạn cảm thấy chán nản, nhưng Nasdaq và S&P 500 vẫn đang trong đợt nỗ lực hồi phục, miễn là điểm số trên hai chỉ số này vẫn giữ được phía trên mức thấp nhất của ngày thứ Sáu đôi với NASDAQ và của ngày thứ Năm đối với S&P500. Điều đó có nghĩa là thị trường vẫn có thể chuyển biến tốt hơn trong vài ngày tới.
Nhưng thị trường chứng khoán đang phải chiến đấu với một kẻ thù mạnh trên thị trường trái phiếu. Lãi suất trái phiếu tiếp tục tăng vào ngày thứ Hai.
Cuối tuần qua, Thượng viện đã thông qua dự luật kích cầu kinh tế trị giá 1,9 nghìn tỷ USD nhằm kích thích bán trái phiếu. Dự luật – vẫn cần được phê duyệt lần cuối tại Hạ viện trước khi Tổng thống Biden ký – bổ sung cho quan điểm rằng nền kinh tế Mỹ đang ấm lên.
Điều đó ảnh hưởng đến thị trường chứng khoán theo một số cách, bao gồm cả chi phí đi vay tăng lên cao hơn. Ngoài ra, khi lợi suất tăng, trái phiếu trở nên hấp dẫn hơn và cổ phiếu mất đi sức hấp dẫn của loại tài sản hấp dẫn nhất.
Tradeweb cho biết lãi suất chuẩn của trái phiếu kho bạc Mỹ kỳ hạn 10 năm đang đóng cửa ở mức cao nhất kể từ giữa tháng 2 năm 2020, lãi suất 20 năm đóng cửa quanh mức cao nhất kể từ khi trái phiếu kho bạc 20 năm được phát hành lại vào giữa Tháng 5 năm 2020, lãi suất 30 năm đóng cửa quanh mức cao nhất tính từ đầu năm 2020.
Thị trường trái phiếu, hàng hóa ảnh hưởng đến thị trường chứng khoán
Những thay đổi trên thị trường trái phiếu, hàng hóa và các thị trường tài chính khác đã tạo nên một thị trường chứng khoán phân hoá.
Các cổ phiếu tăng trưởng và công nghệ rõ ràng là không được hưởng lợi. Chỉ số SPDR cho lĩnh vực công nghệ ( XLK ) đã giảm -3,7% trong tháng này. Trong khi Chỉ số S&P lĩnh vực vật liệu tăng +3,8%, chỉ số S&P500 lĩnh vực công nghiệp tăng 4,2% và chỉ số S&P500 lĩnh vực vận tải tăng 5%.
Lĩnh vực năng lượng đang đánh bại tất cả các lĩnh vực còn lại, tăng hơn 10% sau khi đã tăng 22,5% vào tháng Hai. Giá dầu thô của Mỹ đang có xu hướng đạt 70 USD / thùng sau khi trải qua phần lớn cuộc khủng hoảng coronavirus với giá dưới 45 USD. Chỉ số của lĩnh vực tài chính tăng 5,7% chủ yếu nhờ lãi suất tăng.
S&P 500 đã hoạt động tương đối tốt hơn vì nó có trọng số lớn hơn các cổ phiếu chu kỳ và tài chính so với Nasdaq.
Chỉ số trung bình công nghiệp Dow Jones tăng 1% và đạt mức cao kỷ lục vào thứ Hai. Walt Disney ( DIS ) dẫn đầu chỉ số Dow. Nó tăng vọt lên mức cao mới sau khi các quan chức California báo hiệu rằng công viên Disneyland và California Adventure của công ty có thể mở cửa trở lại với số lượng hạn chế vào ngày 1 tháng 4.
Chỉ số Russell 2000 đã tăng 0,5% hôm thứ Hai. Chỉ số vốn hóa nhỏ này có tỷ trọng lớn nhất ở lĩnh vực chăm sóc sức khỏe (19%), công nghiệp (16%) và tài chính (gần 16%). Cơ hội đang nảy sinh theo chu kỳ. Ví dụ, vào thứ Hai, IBD Leaderboard đã thêm công ty phân bón CF Industries ( CF ), công ty này đang có điểm mua bổ sung vị thế. Nhưng rủi ro thị trường vẫn là một vấn đề.
Chỉ số IBD 50 giảm 3%, 6 trong số các cổ phiếu hoạt động kém nhất trên IBD 50 là các công ty chip, tất cả đều giảm trên 4,5%. Các cổ phiếu công nghệ khác cũng nằm bét bảng. Chỉ số chất bán dẫn Philadelphia giảm 5,4%, một yếu tố quan trọng dẫn đến chuỗi ngày tệ hại của Nasdaq.
Juan Carlos Arancibia is the Markets Editor of IBD and oversees our market coverage. Follow him at @IBD_jarancibia
Juan Carlos Arancibia là Biên tập viên Thị trường của IBD và giám sát phạm vi thị trường của IBD. Theo dõi anh ấy tại @IBD_jarancibia
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