Cung tiền M2: Dấu hiệu cho biết nền kinh tế sẽ tăng trưởng hay suy thoái trong tương lai gần
Khái niệm
Cung tiền M2 là một đại lượng cung tiền bao gồm cung tiền M1 và chuẩn tiền tệ, cụ thể là M1 và các khoản tiền gửi có kì hạn.
– Cung tiền M1 bao gồm M0 (tiền mặt) và các tài khoản tiền gửi không kỳ hạn có thể rút theo yêu cầu.
– Chuẩn tiền tệ là các khoản tiền gửi tiết kiệm, chứng khoán thị trường tiền tệ, quĩ tương hỗ và tiền gửi có kì hạn khác. Các tài sản này ít thanh khoản hơn M1 và không phù hợp để sử dụng như một phương tiện trao đổi, tuy nhiên chúng vẫn có thể được chuyển đổi dễ dàng qua tiền mặt hay tiền gửi bằng séc.
Đặc điểm Cung tiền M2
Do sự phức tạp của khái niệm tiền tệ, cũng như qui mô và điều kiện của các nền kinh tế khá đa dạng, có nhiều cách khác nhau để đo lường cung tiền. Các đại lượng đo lường cung tiền thường được kí hiệu với chữ M mô tả từ tiền hẹp đến tiền mở rộng.
Hiện tại có 4 qui mô cung tiền từ M0 là hẹp nhất đến M4 là rộng nhất. Cung tiền M2 thường tương đối rộng so với các cung tiền hẹp hơn.
Cung tiền M2 là phân loại tiền rộng hơn so với cung tiền M1, bằng M1 cộng với các tài sản có thanh khoản cao và không phải là tiền mặt.
Thông thường người tiêu dùng và doanh nghiệp không sử dụng tiền gửi tiết kiệm và các thành phần tiền khác của M2 trong trao đổi mua bán hay thanh toán hóa đơn hằng ngày, nhưng các tài sản này vẫn có thể chuyển đổi thành tiền mặt.
Nhiều nhà kinh tế sử dụng cung tiền M2 với nghĩa rộng hơn khi đánh giá cung tiền một nền kinh tế do các nền kinh tế hiện đại có các giao dịch chuyển tiền giữa các nhiều loại tài khoản khác nhau.
Ví dụ một doanh nghiệp chuyển 10.000$ từ tài khoản thị trường tiền tệ sang tài khoản giao dịch. Việc chuyển tiền này sẽ làm tăng M1 (không bao hàm các ngân sách từ thị trường tiền tệ) trong khi vẫn giữ nguyên M2 (vì M2 có bao gồm các tài khoản thị trường tiền tệ).
Cung tiền M2 và Lạm phát
M2 là một yếu tố quan trọng trong việc dự báo các vấn đề kinh tế như lạm phát.
Lạm phát và lãi suất quyết định các điều kiện kinh tế tổng quan do chúng có ảnh hưởng lớn đến tỉ lệ việc làm, chi tiêu tiêu dùng, đầu tư kinh doanh, sức mạnh tiền nội tệ và cán cân thương mại.
Một trong những nhiệm vụ chính của ngân hàng trung ương là cân bằng tỉ lệ thất nghiệp với lạm phát. Để thực hiện được điều này ngân hàng nhà nước có thể thao túng cung tiền M2.
Cung tiền M2 cung cấp cái nhìn sâu sắc về phương hướng, tâm lí nền kinh tế cũng như các dấu hiệu cho thấy hiệu quả của chính sách ngân hàng trung ương như thế nào.
Nếu có sự tăng trưởng trong cung tiền M2, đó là dấu hiệu cho biết nền kinh tế sẽ tăng trưởng trong tương lai gần.
Khi tăng trưởng đến một mức nhất định, nền kinh tế sẽ tiến đến giai đoạn suy thoái, lúc này M2 cũng sẽ chững lại, tại thời điểm này ngân hàng trung ương sẽ triển khai chính sách tiền tệ mở rộng để kích thích nền kinh tế.
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