Nhật báo IBD ngày 14/11/2022
Thị trường tạm nghỉ ngơi sau hai ngày tăng mạnh; Ngưỡng kháng cự quan trọng S&P 500 cần vượt qua
Thị trường chứng khoán dao động trong phiên đầu tuần, có nhịp nghỉ cần thiết sau 2 phiên tăng điểm mạnh nhất kể từ 2008.
Đầu phiên, Nasdaq giảm 1.4% nhưng hồi phục sau đó. Đã có lúc các chỉ số lấy lại sắc xanh nhưng mờ nhạt về cuối phiên. Nasdaq đóng cửa giảm 1.1%. S&P 500 giảm 0.9% và Dow Jones Industrial Average giảm 0.6%.
Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY)- quỹ đầu tư cổ phiếu tăng trưởng- giảm nhẹ 0.3%.
Sự hồi phục của thị trường trong phiên sáng diễn ra trùng với thời điểm báo chí trích lời phó chủ tịch Fed Lael Brainard. Bà cho rằng, Fed có thể tăng 50 điểm cơ bản lãi suất trong cuộc họp tháng 12 sắp tới. Mức tăng này khẳng định đúng kỳ vọng của thị trường.
Tuy nhiên, lực bán gia tăng trong giờ giao dịch cuối cùng, kéo chỉ số đóng cửa ở mức đáy trong ngày. Mặc dù không bất ngờ nhưng đây là vận động không mấy tích cực.
Mức tăng của phiên thứ Năm và thứ Sáu cộng lại là cao nhất trong 14 năm qua đối với Nasdaq. Và tuần trước cũng là tuần tăng điểm tốt nhất kể từ tháng 3 năm nay.
Việc tăng điểm bùng nổ như vậy không thể kéo dài lâu được, vì thế, phiên giảm điểm vừa qua có tác dụng điều chỉnh lại tốc độ của thị trường. Khối lượng giao dịch giảm trên cả hai sàn cho thấy nhà đầu tư tổ chức không bán mạnh.
So với các chỉ số khác thì Nasdaq đang nằm trên MA50 ngày ở mức khiêm tốn nhất. Dẫu vậy trong phiên thứ Hai, chỉ số vẫn bám trụ trên đường này. S&P 500 thì gặp cản ở ngưỡng 4.000 điểm, một mức kháng cự cần theo dõi.
Thị trường tìm kiếm cổ phiếu dẫn dắt
Trong khi các chỉ số chính đang ở thế uptrend được xác nhận, các nhà đầu tư vẫn rất cần nhìn thấy những cổ phiếu breakout và tạo lợi nhuận.
Nhóm năng lượng từng dẫn dắt thị trường trong năm nay và hiện vẫn tiếp tục mang đến những cơ hội.
Trong nhóm ngành dịch vụ hiện trường có SLB (SLB), ProFrac (ACDC) Tidewater (TDW) tiến triển tốt sau khi breakout nền giá. Cổ phiếu khoan dầu ChampionX (CHX) và Noble (NE) đang tăng giá mạnh mẽ.
Cổ phiếu đường ống dẫn dầu khí cũng vận động tốt. Flex LNG (FLNG) là một cái tên có thể quan sát khi nó đang hoạt động trên nền giá cốc. Oneok (OKE) thì đang hình thành nền giá 2 đáy.
Lĩnh vực sản xuất theo hợp đồng đã trở thành điểm nóng trong khi ngành công nghệ bị bủa vây. Sanmina (SANM), Fabrinet (FN) và Plexus (PLXS) là những cái tên nổi bật.
Cổ phiếu tài chính và sản xuất
Một số công ty tài chính và môi giới đang thể hiện sức mạnh dẫn dắt của mình như Charles Schwab (SCHW) và Futu Holdings (FUTU). Hai cổ phiếu đang hình thành nền giá và có tên trong danh sách MarketSmith 250.
Nhà sản xuất xe tải Paccar (PCAR) và nhà sản xuất máy chạy diesel Cummins (CMI) cũng gia nhập vào hàng ngũ những cổ phiếu breakout gần đây.
Array Technologies (ARRY), RBC Bearings (RBC), Mueller Industries (MLI) và Automatic Data Processing (ADP) có thể là những cái tên đáng để quan sát.
Công nghệ là lĩnh vực lạc điệu trong xu hướng uptrend mới. Trong số hơn 50 cổ phiếu breakout gần đây trong danh sách MarketSmith thì gần như không có công ty phần mềm và sản xuất chip nào.
A10 Networks (ATEN) đang gần điểm mua 19.15 và vượt kháng cự quanh mức 16.50. Nhà sản xuất chip GlobalFoundries (GFS) cũng gần điểm mua 66.06 của nền giá cốc. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) là nhà sản xuất phần cứng, hiện đang tăng điểm từ điểm vào 75.03.
Có thể nhiều mẫu hình biểu đồ sẽ xuất hiện trong thời gian tới.
Bạn hãy nhớ, thị trường gấu đã tàn phá cổ phiếu dẫn dắt và nhiều trong số đó là cổ phiếu công nghệ từng dẫn đầu thị trường bò trước đó. Cổ phiếu dẫn dắt mới cần thời gian để vận động và chứng minh sức mạnh của mình. Với bối cảnh hiện nay, nhà đầu tư có thể giải ngân với tỉ trọng 20-40% có lẽ là vừa đủ.
Theo nhật báo IBD, Ninh TSI biên dịch
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