Nhật báo IBD ngày 24/05/2022
Cổ phiếu bị bán tháo trên sàn Nasdaq sau cảnh báo của Snap; Nhà đầu tư trông chờ công bố biên bản cuộc họp Fed tháng 5?
Snap (SNAP) giảm 43% trong phiên hôm nay về mức đáy 2 năm 12,79 USD khi 283 triệu cổ phiếu được trao tay. Công ty vừa công bố triển vọng doanh thu quý 2 yếu ớt đồng thời cảnh báo tình hình kinh tế xấu đi.
Cổ phiếu đã giảm 73% từ đỉnh 83,34 USD trước khi giảm sốc vào phiên vừa qua. Báo cáo kinh doanh các quý vừa qua góp phần vào đà sụt giảm này. Vào quý 1, ứng dụng nổi tiếng Snapchat đã phá vỡ chuỗi dài lợi nhuận tích cực khi EPS giảm 2 cent/ cổ phiếu. Doanh thu tăng 38% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 1,06 tỷ USD. Có thể mức tăng doanh thu đó là tích cực. Nhưng nó lại đánh dấu quý thứ 3 liên tiếp đà tăng trưởng bị chậm lại khi mà 3 quý trước đó mức tăng của Snap lần lượt là 116%, 57% và 42%.
Nhà đầu tư có được bài học gì từ Snap? Nền tảng cơ bản đương nhiên là vô cùng quan trọng. Dẫu vậy, các cổ phiếu tăng trưởng hàng đầu hoàn toàn có thể giảm gấp nhiều lần so với mức điều chỉnh của các chỉ số chính.
Nasdaq giảm gần 2,4% trong phiên giao dịch thứ Ba và kết phiên ở nửa trên biên độ giá trong ngày. Điều này có vẻ là một niềm an ủi, nhưng hãy nhìn cái cách mà chỉ số này đánh rơi toàn bộ thành thành quả của phiên phục hồi 1,6% trước đó.
Liệu có phải việc Nasdaq quay về mốc 11.000 điểm chỉ là vấn đề thời gian? Tại mức đáy 11.035 điểm hôm thứ Sáu, chỉ số này đã giảm 32% kể từ đỉnh mọi thời đại 16.212 điểm.
Điều này cho thấy thị trường gấu lần này là một trong những thị trường tồi tệ nhất trong nhiều thập kỷ vừa qua.
S&P 500 giảm 0,8%. Hoạt động mua cổ phiếu phòng thủ (phụ tùng ô tô, đồ uống không cồn, thuốc lá, tiện ích, thực phẩm, vàng, bạc…) đã phần nào đỡ thị trường. Dữ liệu sớm chỉ ra có ít nhất 16 trong 197 nhóm ngành IBD bao gồm khoan dầu, tư vấn, viễn thông, bán lẻ tăng 1% hoặc hơn trong phiên giao dịch vừa qua.
Tiền mặt là vị thế tốt nhất
NYSE Composite thể hiện tốt hơn Nasdaq khi chỉ giảm 0,3% sau khi bốc hơi 1,9% trước đó.
McDonald’s (MCD), UnitedHealth (UNH), Amgen (AMGN) và 2 cổ phiếu khác trên Dow Jones Industrial Average tăng trên 2 điểm, đủ để đẩy chỉ số blue chip lên gần 0,2%.
Khối lượng giao dịch tăng trên cả 2 sàn.
Số lượng cổ phiếu giảm giá lớn hơn số cổ phiếu tăng giá với tỷ lệ 5-2 trên sàn Nasdaq và 5-4 trên sàn New York.
Khi mà sự biến động tiếp tục làm rung chuyển thị trường thì tiền mặt vẫn là một vị thế tốt nhất trong giai đoạn này.
Dữ liệu đáng thất vọng về mảng sản xuất và nhà ở cũng đã ảnh hưởng tiêu cực lên cổ phiếu. Nhưng các nhà quan sát nhấn mạnh rằng, kinh tế Mỹ không quá bi đát như những gì mà thị trường đang nhìn nhận.
“Nền kinh tế vẫn tương đối mạnh mẽ, ” Gene Goldman, giám đốc đầu tư tại công ty tư vấn tài chính Cetera cho biết. “Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp có thể đang gia tăng nhưng thị trường lao động có nền tảng mạnh mẽ. Hoạt động tiêu dùng đang ở trạng thái tốt và việc tái thiết hàng tồn kho đang diễn ra. Nền kinh tế có thể kiểm soát được nhờ những định hướng của chính phủ và Fed”
Goldman cũng chỉ ra rằng, việc nhập khẩu mạnh mẽ góp phần quan trọng trong sự sụt giảm 1,4% GDP quý đầu tiên của Mỹ.
Lãi suất là tâm điểm của thị trường thời gian tới
Vào phiên thứ Ba, lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm giảm lần thứ Tư trong 5 phiên vừa qua khi về mức 2,71%.
Các nhà giao dịch trong phiên ngày mai sẽ không thể không tập trung vào biên bản cuộc họp tháng 5 của Fed. Quay trở lại thời điểm đó, ngân hàng trung ương Mỹ đã tăng lãi suất quỹ liên bang 50 điểm cơ sở. Các cuộc họp tháng 6,7 sắp tới cũng có thể đề cập đến mức tăng nửa điểm lãi suất cho các khoản vay qua đêm.
Thị trường quan tâm đến điều gì? Liệu Fed có thể hiện quan điểm đồng thuận về mức tăng nửa điểm lãi suất nhằm kiềm chế lạm phát? Loretta Mester, người đứng đầu Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank kêu gọi mức tăng 75 điểm cơ sở trong khi chủ tịch St. Louis Fed James Bullard phát tín hiệu với truyền thông về mức tăng 50 điểm cơ sở mà ông kỳ vọng.
Goldman cho biết, 2 thành viên mới thuộc ủy ban chính sách lãi suất 2022 là Philip Jefferson và Lisa Cook có thể thiên về giải pháp nới lỏng tiền tệ khi trích dẫn nghiên cứu về việc tăng lãi suất quá nhanh có thể ảnh hưởng xấu đến điều kiện kinh tế của các gia đình trung lưu và người lao động Mỹ.
Biên bản FOMC sẽ được báo cáo vào 2 giờ chiều thứ Tư trong khi dữ liệu về GDP quý 1 của nước này sẽ được công bố vào thứ Năm.
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