Nhật báo IBD ngày 24/08/2022
Thị trường dứt mạch giảm 3 phiên liên tiếp; 5 điều cần chú ý trước bài phát biểu của Powell
Hôm nay thị trường chứng khoán kết thúc chuỗi giảm điểm 3 ngày liên tiếp. Tuy nhiên các nhà đầu tư dường như có tâm lý chờ đợi trước bài phát biểu về chính sách tiền tệ của chủ tịch Fed vào hôm thứ Sáu tới.
Với mức tăng 0,4%, Nasdaq đã xóa đi một chút thiệt hại trong tuần vừa qua. Kể từ mức đỉnh ngắn hạn 13.181 điểm hôm 16/8, chỉ số này đã giảm mất 6,3%.
Khi mà một chỉ số chính như Nasdaq “bơi” giữa MA50 ngày và 200 ngày, thì nó tựa như nằm ở vùng “đất hoang phế”, chẳng của phe nào, bò hay gấu!
Bức tranh về Nasdaq dường như có phần phức tạp. MA50 hướng lên kể từ ngày 21/7- gần một tháng sau phiên bùng nổ theo đà hôm 24/6. Tuy nhiên MA200 ngày lại tiếp tục dốc xuống.
S&P 500 cũng dừng chuỗi giảm điểm 3 ngày với mức hồi phục 0,3%. Tuy nhiên chỉ số này đã ít nhiều phản ánh được bức tranh của Nasdaq.
Cổ phiếu vốn hóa nhỏ vượt trội thị trường. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) tăng 0.8% với khối lượng giảm. Trong khi đó in SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY) ETF tăng 0.5%.
Khối lượng giao dịch của MDY giảm 57% so với MA50 ngày. Nó không chỉ là cạn vol mà nó còn tựa như sa mạc Atacama ở Chile- nơi khô cằn nhất hành tinh- vậy!
Thị trường tháng 8 sẽ hành động sao đây?
Tổ chức vẫn tiếp tục bán trái phiếu! Lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm tăng 5 điểm cơ sở lên 3,1%, đánh dấu mức đóng cửa cao nhất kể từ ngày 28/6.
Giá dầu tương lai West Texas Intermediate tăng 1.7% lên 95.37 USD/ thùng. Giá dầu đang cố phục hồi sau khi giảm 35% kể từ mức đỉnh 130.50 USD.
Vào thứ Tư, khảo sát chỉ ra xác suất tăng 0,75% lãi suất tăng lên 62,5% từ mức 40,3% cách đây một tháng trước. Trong khi đó khả năng tăng 50 điểm cơ sở giảm xuống còn 37,5%.
5 điều cần quan sát
Độc giả IBD không muốn đánh giá thị trường chỉ bằng việc xem cổ phiếu của mình vận động như thế nào. Mà còn cân nhắc những yếu tố sau.
Thứ nhất: Liệu các đường trung bình của các chỉ số có di chuyển song song và hướng lên? Cổ phiếu blue chip trên Dow Jones Industrial Average tăng 0,2% trong phiên vừa qua, cũng giống nhiều chỉ số khác. MA10 ngày và 21 ngày tăng mạnh kể từ tháng 7 và chúng đã leo lên trên đường MA50 ngày. Tốt thật! Nhưng Dow lại không trụ được trên MA200 được 1,2 ngày kể từ mùa xuân năm nay.
Thứ hai: Liệu cổ phiếu dẫn dắt có lan tỏa chứ không chỉ xuất hiện trong ngành năng lượng. Vào phiên nay, 15 nhóm ngành IBD tăng 2% hoặc hơn. Cổ phiếu xây dựng nhà và phần mềm dữ liệu thể hiện nổi bật. Phần lớn những cái tên tích cực đến từ dầu khí. Trong khi đó, bán lẻ mặt hàng đặc sản, logistics, thép và hợp kim, công nghệ sinh học là những nhóm cổ phiếu tăng trên 1,5%.
Quan sát cổ phiếu dẫn dắt
Thứ ba: Liệu các cổ phiếu phá vỡ mới có tạo được lợi nhuận đáng kể hay không? Chương trình nhịp đập thị trường cho thấy các cổ phiếu tăng trưởng như Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Dycom (DY) hay Golar LNG (GLNG) đều vận động khá tốt sau khi vượt qua điểm mua.
Thứ tư: Liệu rằng nội tại thị trường sẽ khỏe hơn không? Đường advance-decline của Nasdaq đã đi xuống kể từ tuần trước. Tuy nhiên, độ rộng thị trường đã tăng đều từ đáy tháng 6. Đường này của NYSE cũng có xu thế tương tự.
Trong khi đó, thật thú vị khi thấy rằng, mặc dù các chỉ số giảm điểm vào thứ Ba, khối lượng giao dịch lại sụt giảm trên cả hai sàn.
Thứ năm: Liệu các công ty có tiếp tục vượt qua được kỳ vọng lợi nhuận không? Yardeni Research lưu ý, lợi nhuận dự phóng đối với các doanh nghiệp năng lượng, bất động sản và tiện ích trên S&P 500 đều gia tăng. Nhưng mảng tiêu dùng thiết yếu, tài chính và công nghiệp lại có vẻ đình trệ.
“Nếu trên bảng cân đối S&P 500, lợi nhuận dự phóng đi ngang, tỷ lệ P/E dự phóng của chỉ số cũng đi ngang như chúng tôi dự đoán thì chỉ số giá cổ phiếu S&P 500 cũng di chuyển như vậy cho đến khi lợi nhuận bắt đầu gia tăng vào năm tới”. Nó sẽ tạo ra một thị trường tốt cho các cổ phiếu tăng giá
Công ty Mỹ miệt mài trả cổ tức
Nghiên cứu tại quỹ khổng lồ Janus Henderson tiết lộ rằng, cổ tức của Mỹ đã đạt đỉnh mọi thời đại trong quý 2 vừa qua.
Có đến 94% các công ty nằm trong chỉ số Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index đã tăng hoặc duy trì việc chi trả cổ tức tiền mặt cho cổ động trong giai đoạn này, với mức 144,4 tỷ USD. Một phần quan trọng trong số đó đến từ các công ty tài chính.
“Cổ tức tiếp tục thu hút sự chú ý của các nhà đầu tư khi nên kinh tế bất ổn đã làm gia tăng nhu cầu chi trả cổ tức của các công ty có dòng tiền mặt dư giả” Matt Peron, giám đốc nghiên cứu tại Janus Henderson cho biết.
“Tiến tới năm 2023, bất cứ một sự sụt giảm nào trong tăng trưởng kinh tế cũng đều tác động lớn đến việc chi trả cổ tức tại các thị trường ngoài Mỹ. Nhưng tại Mỹ thì tăng trưởng cổ tức đã cho thấy sự phục hồi đáng kể qua các chu kỳ thị tường khi mà các công ty có xu hướng cắt giảm việc mua lại cổ phiếu hơn là cắt giảm việc trả cổ tức”
Theo nhật báo IBD, Ninh TSI lược dịch
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