Nhật báo IBD ngày 13/06/2022
Chứng khoán rơi thảm vì lãi suất trái phiếu; S&P 500 chính thức gia nhập thị trường gấu
Thị trường chứng khoán tiếp tục lao dốc phiên thứ ba liên tiếp, chạm đến mức thấp nhất kể từ đầu năm. Tin xấu là S&P đã giảm 22,2% kể từ đỉnh trước, chính thức bước vào thị trường gấu. Lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc tiếp tục tăng và đường cong lãi suất đang một lần nữa phẳng dần.
Sau khi tạo khoảng trống giảm giá đầu phiên, các chỉ số duy trì sự yếu ớt đến thận cuối phiên. Chuỗi giảm điểm 4 ngày tại các chỉ số chính hiện là lớn nhất kể từ tháng 3/2020, theo Dow Jones Market Data. Sự sụt giảm dữ dội này ví với sự sụp đổ của thị trường do Covid. Chỉ có điều là chúng ta đã bước vào thị trường đi xuống hơi lâu và hơi sâu với ít nhất 5 tháng nay.
S&P 500 kết phiên giảm đến 3,9%, chính thức bước vào thị trường gấu. Nasdaq giảm 33% so với đỉnh tháng 1 và gia nhập thị trường gấu được vài tháng.
Chỉ số vốn hóa nhỏ Russell 2000 cũng dính thị trường gấu từ tháng 1. Hiện nó đã giảm tầm 30% kể từ đỉnh ngày 8/11 năm ngoái. Dow Jones bốc hơi 2,8% trong phiên vừa qua, giảm 17% kể từ đỉnh tháng 11.
Khối lượng giao dịch tăng trên cả 2 sàn. Điều tồi tệ là số cổ phiếu giảm áp đảo cổ phiếu tăng với tỷ lệ 16-1 trên sàn NYSE và 6-1 trên Nasdaq.
Lãi suất trái phiếu làm thị trường chứng khoán khiếp sợ
Cảm giác sợ hãi bao trùm lên thị trường chứng khóan vào thứ Sáu khi mà chỉ số giá tiêu dùng không chỉ nóng lên và còn lu mờ cả mức đỉnh trước đó từ hồi tháng 3. Tin xấu này đã khiến lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc tăng vọt vào thứ Sáu và phiên hôm nay, tăng đến hơn 30 điểm cơ sở chỉ trong có 2 phiên vừa qua.
Mức tăng của phiên hôm nay (lên mức 3,371%) được ghi nhận là cao nhất kể từ ngày 18/3/2020. Chỉ trong 4 phiên vừa qua, lãi suất trái phiếu tăng 40 điểm.
Đường cong lãi suất lại đang thắt chặt lại. Lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 2 năm tăng 23 điểm cơ sở lên 3,279%, tức là tăng 64 điểm cơ sở trong 7 ngày vừa qua. Đó là mức tăng lớn nhất kể từ tháng 11/2001. Lãi suất trái phiếu kỳ hạn 2 năm và 10 năm đảo chiều trong tháng Tư. Đây được xem là chỉ báo của một cuộc suy thoái kinh tế.
Fed sẽ họp vào tuần này, cam kết tăng ít nhất nửa điểm lãi suất. Có 73% khả năng lãi suất tăng 0,5% và 27% khả năng tăng 0,75%.
Chỉ số biến động thị trường Cboe Market Volatility Index (VIX) tăng vọt vào thứ Hai. Chỉ số này đã tăng 20% so với mức trung bình động 10 ngày, cho thấy ít nhất là có đáy ngắn hạn. Tỷ lệ put-call đạt 1.2 trong phiên vừa qua. đó cũng là chỉ báo sợ hãi tột độ khác báo hiệu đáy thị trường. Nhưng dấu hiệu tương tự hồi đầu năm nay lại không mang lại sự tăng trưởng bền vững nào của thị trường chứng khoán.
IBD 50 rơi thảm
IBD 50 giảm 5,5% khi mà tất cả các mã cổ phiếu (ngoại từ World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE)) đều giảm điểm. Hơn chục cổ phiếu rớt xuống đường trung bình động 50 ngày trong đó có Graphic Packaging (GPK), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) và National Fuel Gas (NFG).
Thị trường e sợ rủi ro, tiền ảo cũng vì thế mà lao dốc.
Bitcoin lao xuống mức 23.250 USD vào cuối ngày thứ 2. Mức giảm 15% được xem là lớn nhất kể từ sau vụ sụt giảm 26,7% hôm 12/3/2020. Giá đồng tiền ảo này giảm khoảng 19% kể từ chiều thứ 7. Đồng Ethereum cũng giảm hơn 15% chỉ trong 24 giờ.
ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (BITO), một quỹ ETF thực hiện các hợp đồng tương lai Bitcoin giảm hơn 20% về mức đáy mọi thời đại. Coinbase Global (COIN) thì giảm 11,4% với khối lượng lớn. Riot Blockchain (RIOT) giảm 10% về mức đáy tháng 11/2020.
Enphase Energy (ENPH) giảm hơn 9% đồng thời kích hoạt tính hiệu bán. Cổ phiếu này bị loại khỏi IBD Leaderboard.
Cổ phiếu năng lượng đảo chiều tăng
Cổ phiếu năng lượng nằm trong nhóm yếu nhất trong phiên đầu tuần với mức giảm 5,2%. Tuy nhiên Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) đã tìm thấy ngưỡng hỗ trợ là đường trung bình động 10 tuần và đảo chiều tăng. SPDR S&P Oil và Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) chưa chạm MA10 tuần nhưng cũng ghi nhận sự sụt giảm.
Ông Mark Haefele tại quỹ quản lỹ tài sản toàn cầu UBS dự đoán giá dầu vẫn tiếp tục leo thang mặc cho OPEC+ cam kết tăng sản lượng. “Các thành viên trong nhóm quả là đã nỗ lực nhằm đáp ứng mục tiêu sản lượng hiện nay nhưng chúng tôi không nghĩ sẽ có sự gia tăng đáng kể nào về lượng dầu bung ra thị trường. Việc EU cấm nhập khẩu dầu từ Nga, mặc dù có phần khựng lại nhưng cũng sẽ kiềm chế lượng cung dầu thô toàn cầu trong vài tháng tới”.
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