Khuyến nghị mua CTCP phân bón Bình điền (HOSE: BFC) ngày 7/8/2020
Phân bón Bình Điền (BFC) quý II ghi nhận hơn 1.700 tỷ đồng doanh thu, giảm 17% so với quý II/2019. Lãi trước thuế gấp 5 lần cùng kỳ, đạt hơn 88 tỷ đồng. Cần lưu ý rằng lợi nhuận quý II/2019 của BFC rơi về mức đáy do ảnh hưởng của hạn mặn. Tính riêng quý 2, sản lượng sản xuất đạt 165.066 tấn, giảm 11,3% so với quý 2 năm ngoái. Trong khi sản lượng tiêu thụ đạt 174.738 tấn, cũng giảm 14,1% so với cùng kỳ. Tính chung 6 tháng đầu năm 2020, tổng doanh thu Phân bón Bình Điền đạt 2.063 tỷ đồng, giảm hơn 15% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và mới thực hiện được hơn 43% kế hoạch về doanh thu. Lợi nhuận trước thuế đạt 96,1 tỷ đồng, gần gấp 4 lần cùng kỳ và đã hoàn thành 62,7% chỉ tiêu lợi nhuận được giao cho cả năm.
Kế hoạch quý III/2020, BFC đặt mục tiêu sản xuất 159 nghìn tấn phân bón, tương ứng tiêu thụ 156 nghìn tấn. Về các chỉ tiêu tài chính, công ty đặt mục tiêu 1.498 tỷ đồng doanh thu và 50 tỷ đồng lãi trước thuế hợp nhất. Như vậy, công ty dự kiến đạt 59% kế hoạch doanh thu và 99% kế hoạch lợi nhuận sau 9 tháng.
Ngoài ra, Phân bón Bình Điền cho biết sẽ tập trung nghiên cứu phát triển thị trường mới gồm Myanmar và Thái Lan, đẩy mạnh các sản phẩm cho vùng lúa bị hạn mặn, đất phèn, ứng phó với tình trạng biến đổi khí hậu. Ngoài ra, công ty sẽ tiếp tục xem xét tính khả thi của dự án nâng cao chất lượng sản phẩm NPK tại nhà máy phân bón Bình Điền – Long An, công suất 200.000 tấn/năm.
Với KQKD tăng trưởng mạnh trở lại nhờ giá nguyên liệu đầu vào giảm, cũng như hạn mặn ở đồng bằng sông cửu long được đẩy lui, BFC là dạng công ty thoát khủng hoảng và kinh doanh tốt trở lại. Loại công ty này thường có sự tăng giá lớn sau khi thoát khó khăn vì giai đoạn khó khăn trước đó khiến công ty bịnh bán giảm sâu dưới giá trị thực.
Về kỹ thuật, Hiện BFC đang ở nền giá số 1, mẫu hình giá là hai đáy, là mẫu hình được O’Neil ưa thích thứ hai chỉ sau cốc tay cầm. Phiên giao dịch thứ 6 tuần trước, BFC đã phá vỡ vượt qua điểm mua mẫu hình hai đáy với khối lượng lớn gấp trên 2 lần bình quân. Đây đồng thời cũng là điểm phá vỡ đường MA50 ngày, điểm mua mẫu hai đáy trùng với điểm phá vỡ MA50 ngày thường gia tăng hiệu quả và khả năng thành công của điểm mua.
NĐT có thể xem thêm về mẫu hình hai đáy cũng như cách mua và nguyên lý cung cầu của mẫu hình tại đây:
Dựa vào những phân tích trên, Khuyến Nghị mua với cổ phiếu BFC với giá mục tiêu 16.000 – 17.000 trong thời gian đầu tư 3-6 tháng. Vùng mua là 12.600 ± 300 đồng. Tỷ trọng <25% danh mục.
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