Nhật báo IBD ngày 11/01/2022
Thị trường chứng khoán bật tăng mạnh mẽ chờ đón báo cáo lạm phát như mơ
Thị trường chứng khoán bật tăng lên mức đỉnh trong tuần trước ngày chỉ số CPI tháng 12 được công bố.
Cổ phiếu công nghệ bứt phá trong phiên thứ Tư, nhưng việc hăng máu mua vào có thể tạo ra những khoản lỗ mới nếu dữ liệu không được tích cực như kỳ vọng.
S&P 500 bốc hơi 19.4% giá trị trong năm 2022 nhưng đã tăng khoảng 3% trước báo cáo lạm phát. Điều này đã giúp thị trường tô được những gam màu chuẩn không cần chỉnh cho hiệu ứng tháng Giêng.
Khối lượng giao dịch tăng mạnh trên sàn Nasdaq và NYSE cho thấy sự gia tăng kỳ vọng về việc dữ liệu kinh tế sẽ thúc đẩy thị trường. Các chỉ số chính tăng thêm khoảng 1.5% trong phiên hôm nay, nhưng tất cả đang dồn sự chú ý vào báo cáo lạm phát ngày mai. Họ tìm kiếm những tia sáng ấm áp để bước vào mùa báo cáo quý 4.
Lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm giảm 7 điểm cơ bản về 3.55%. Giá dầu thô tăng hơn 3%, đóng cửa trên mức 77 USD/ thùng trong khi giá khí đốt tự nhiên tăng lên 3.69 USD. Thời tiết ôn hòa ở Mỹ và châu Âu năm nay đã khiến các nhà đầu cơ năng lượng giá lên bị thiệt hại.
IBD đã nâng triển vọng thị trường lên uptrend được xác nhận vào cuối tuần trước khi ghi nhận hành động tăng giá mạnh mẽ và được hỗ trợ bởi tâm lý lạc quan đầu năm mới.
Điều này đã diễn ra trong hai tuần đầu tiên của tháng 1 với sự tiến triển và lực mua mạnh những cổ phiếu công nghệ bị thiệt hại nặng nề trong năm cũ 2022.
Hiệu ứng tháng Giêng
Hiệu ứng tháng Giêng đã đến thật khi các nhà đầu tư giành giật nhau những cổ phiếu lỗ lớn của năm ngoái.
Hiệu ứng này có xu hướng đạt đỉnh trong 3 tuần đầu năm mới, sau đó mùa báo cáo kinh doanh quý 4 sẽ nắm quyền kiểm sát cuộc chơi.
Các chuyên gia phân tích dự báo doanh thu và lợi nhuận quý 4 sẽ sụt giảm mạnh so với quý 3 sau những tác động tiêu cực của lãi suất lên chi phí lao động và ngân sách doanh nghiệp.
Tuy nhiên, thách thức lớn nhất của thị trường sẽ đến vào tháng 2 và tháng 3 khi mà dữ liệu việc làm sẽ hé lộ những ảnh hưởng của làn sóng sa thải trên thế giới doanh nghiệp. Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) và hàng chục các công ty blue chip khác đang tiến hành cắt giảm lao động và những dữ liệu đó sẽ cho chúng ta thấy được nền kinh tế Mỹ sẽ hạ cánh mềm hay lâm vào một cuộc suy thoái toàn diện.
Nhà đầu tư phải làm gì
Tất cả các chỉ số chính đã đóng cửa tại mức đỉnh kể từ đầu năm mới.
S&P 500 quay trở lại phía trên MA50 ngày nhưng vẫn nằm dưới MA200 ngày, ngưỡng được xem là vạch kẻ đường giữa thị trường bò và gấu. Dữ liệu lạm phát vừa phải hôm thứ Năm có thể kéo những tay mua do dự vào cuộc, mang đến một đợt test quan trọng tại ngưỡng kháng cự lịch sử này.
Nếu cổ phiếu của quỹ mô phỏng S&P 500 SPDR Trust’s (SPY) vượt được mức 400 cũng là vượt đường trendline giảm giá thì sẽ tạo ra lực cầu mạnh, thúc đẩy những khoản lợi nhuận mới và thậm chí nó là dấu hiệu kết thúc thị trường gấu. Nhưng các nhà đầu tư thông minh sẽ chờ đợi thời cơ của mình, chờ để trái ngọt tiến về phía họ gần nhất mà tiện tay hái quả dễ dàng.
Cổ phiếu động lực thị trường hôm nay
Cổ phiếu thuộc IBD 50 Donaldson (DCI) đang phục hồi và chỉ cách điểm mua 62.04 USD của nền giá phẳng tầm 1%. Giá cổ phiếu đang nằm ở cạnh nền giá đĩa kéo dài 15 tháng. Đây là đặc điểm của hành động giá sau đại dịch. Một số cổ phiếu sẽ bật tăng lên mức đỉnh cao hơn hoặc về đáy thấp hơn trong khi phần lớn đều giảm nhẹ trong một thời gian dài rồi cuối cùng là hình thành những mẫu hình tạo lợi nhuận.
Expedia Group (EXPE) được yêu thích trong phiên thứ Tư khi tăng gần 5% và vượt MA50 ngày lần đầu tiên trong 6 tuần qua sau khi nâng cấp website du lịch. Visa (V) cũng có hành động giá tích cực. Cổ phiếu đã tăng hơn 7% kể từ đầu năm 2023.
Bạn hãy nhớ, du lịch 2023 có thể không duy trì được sự lạc quan ban đầu khi mà mọi người đã được đoàn tụ với gia đình vào năm ngoái, làm giảm nhu cầu đi lại sau đại dịch.
Theo nhật báo IBD, Ninh TSI biên dịch
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