Nhật báo IBD ngày 22/06/2022
Chứng khoán Mỹ biến động trước bài phát biểu của chủ tịch Fed; đã đến lúc bán cổ phiếu dầu mỏ?
Thảm sát đang diễn ra ở cổ phiếu dầu mỏ, thị trường vẫn không nổi sóng.
Giá đầu thô tương lai của Mỹ giảm 7,3% trước khi chốt phiên với mức giảm 4,8% về 104,3 USD/ thùng. Trong khi đó, lãi suất trái phiếu kho bạc kỳ hạn 10 năm giảm 15 điểm cơ sở về 3,15%.
Tuy nhiên, xét về mặt kỹ thuật, nếu nhìn vào hành động dài hạn của trái phiếu kho bạc 10 năm, bạn sẽ thấy rằng người mua từ khắp nơi trên thế giới thèm muốn được sở hữu khi lãi suất trái phiếu tăng lên trên 3%.
Cùng ngày chủ tịch Fed có bài phát biểu trước Ủy ban ngân hàng Thượng viện. Ông khẳng định Fed cam kết ghìm lạm phát. Ông cho rằng, rủi ro suy thoái không đến mức leo thang ở thời điểm hiện tại nhưng những thách thức cho công cuộc hạ cánh mềm của nền kinh tế Mỹ là không hề nhỏ.
Nhìn chung, sự sụt giảm dù là nhẹ thôi của các chỉ số chính trên thị trường chứng khoán cũng gây thiệt hại cho hoạt động đầu tư tăng trưởng trong bối cảnh đổ vỡ hiện nay.
Trong khi Nasdaq, S&P 500 và Dow Jones Industrial Average đều đóng phiên giảm dưới 0,2% thì chỉ số vốn hóa nhỏ Russell 2000 lại giảm 0,2%, SPDR S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY) giảm 0.3%.
Khối lượng giao dịch tăng khoảng 1% trên Nasdaq và giảm trên NYSE.
Mức giảm nhẹ của Nasdaq khi kết phiên thực ra đã che giấu đi một biên độ giao dịch tương đối lớn trong ngày. Thực tệ, đỉnh và đáy của chỉ số ngày trong hôm nay vượt quá 2,5%.
Tại mức đỉnh 11.216 trong ngày, Nasdaq lúc đó tăng 1,3%.
Tại sao thị trường vẫn yếu ớt
Tại mức đóng cửa 11.053, the Nasdaq vẫn nằm dưới đường MA50 ngày hơn 8% và MA200 ngày 21%. Chỉ riêng điều này đã khẳng định sự yếu ớt của cổ phiếu. Nói chung, các nhà đầu tư chỉ nên giải ngân mua cổ phiếu khi các chỉ số chính tăng lên trên các ngưỡng kỹ thuật quan trọng, chứ không phải nhào lộn ở phía dưới.
S&P 500 đã có phần phung phí mức tăng 1% trong ngày. Tuy nhiên, chỉ số này đã không đánh mất quá nhiều thành quả 2,6% của 2 ngày tăng điểm trước đó.
Tuy nhiên, việc chỉ số nằm dưới các đường trung bình cho thấy, rõ ràng là các nhà đầu tư mấy ngày nay đã chốt lời cổ phiếu dầu khí- lĩnh vực hot nhất 2022.
Quan sát MarketSmith Growth 250– danh sách hiện đã thu hẹp về 132 cổ phiếu do thị trường gấu sẽ thấy có 16 công ty chứng kiến khối lượng giao dịch tăng hơn MA50 hơn 50%. Trong đó có đến 9 công ty dầu khí.
Như lưu ý trên Wednesday’s IBD Live show, biểu đồ Diamondback Energy (FANG) thể hiện nhà đầu tư tổ chức đang đổ xô chốt lời.
Khi nào nên khóa lợi nhuận?
Nếu biểu đồ ngày cho thấy cổ phiếu mất điểm 8/10 phiên giao dịch vừa qua. Kết quả là cổ phiếu dẫn dắt thị trường cũng mất ngưỡng MA50 ngày, thì đó là một tín hiệu bán quan trọng.
Việc giảm sâu hơn nữa xuống dưới đường MA200 sẽ cho thấy phe bán đang áp đảo.
Sẽ có ích khi xem lại vận động của cổ phiếu Diamondback (FANG) vào quý 4/2018.
Sau nhiều tháng đi ngang, cổ phiếu này giảm 10% với khối lượng lớn hơn trung bình trong tuần giao dịch kết thúc vào 26/10/2018. Tại mức 113,76 USD, cổ phiếu kết tuần giảm hơn 9% so với đường MA40 tuần (tương đương MA200 ngày).
Đó là khởi đầu cho một chuỗi giảm thê thảm 87% trong 17 tháng tiếp theo về đáy 14,55 USD.
Diamondback được dự đoán sẽ chưa công bố báo cáo quý 2 trong 40 ngày nữa. Rõ ràng là do giá năng lượng tăng mạnh, yếu tố cơ bản của doanh nghiệp này vì vậy cũng cải thiện mạnh mẽ. Trong 3 quý vừa qua, lợi nhuận tăng lần lượt 374%, 343% và 126%. Các chuyên gia phân tích cho rằng, năm nay lợi nhuận sẽ tăng 125% lên $25.32/ cổ phiếu.
Nhưng ước tính lợi nhuận 2022 cho mảng dầu khí cho thấy rằng, lạm phát sẽ giảm, ít nhất là vào năm sau? Theo ước tính của phố Wall thì lợi nhuận sau thuế của FANG trong năm 2023 là giảm 8% về mức 23,18 USD/ cổ phiếu.
Theo nhật báo IBD, Ninh TSI tổng hợp
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